The future security of the cryptocurrency market, currently valued in the tens of billions, is overshadowed by the threat of quantum computing. Bitcoin and other blockchains rely on cryptographic standards that, while strong against classical machines, could be broken by a powerful quantum computer.
According to Deloitte, Bitcoin remains secure as long as a quantum computer takes longer than the 10-minute block time to crack its private key. However, current estimates suggest that a sufficiently powerful quantum attack could break a Bitcoin signature in as little as 30 minutes. If the time required for such an attack ever approaches the 10-minute threshold, the Bitcoin blockchain would become inherently vulnerable.
This existential risk highlights an urgent need for proactive defense. This is why Project Eleven built the RISQ List, a critical resource designed to assess and prepare the crypto industry for the quantum disruption.
This article discusses why an immediate, dedicated resource is necessary to guide the cryptocurrency community through the quantum threat.
Table of Contents
The Quantum Threat to Bitcoin
Quantum computing poses an existential threat to cryptocurrency security because it can solve cryptographic problems exponentially faster than classical computers. Project Eleven defines Q-Day as the moment quantum machines can break the elliptic-curve cryptography (ECC) securing private keys.
This threat is intensifying, as Google recently confirmed achieving a verified quantum advantage with its 105-qubit Willow chip. As reported in Nature, this chip ran an algorithm 13,000 times faster than the world’s best supercomputers. A task that would take a classical machine 3.2 years was completed in just over two hours.
While this doesn’t threaten Bitcoin today, the breakthrough confirms that quantum processors are rapidly gaining the reliability needed for practical use. The cryptocurrency ecosystem, built on mathematical problems that quantum computers could solve in minutes, must prepare for a threat within the next decade.
Understanding Bitcoin’s Vulnerability Landscape
Bitcoin’s quantum risk is not uniform. It depends on how different address types expose public keys. Legacy addresses are instantly vulnerable, while others, like Pay-to-Public-Key-Hash, become exposed through address reuse or spending. This complexity creates confusion for holders.
According to Forbes, the real danger is large-scale, error-corrected quantum computers running Shor’s algorithm, which can efficiently break ECC and cause chaos:
- Forged transactions: Attackers could falsify digital signatures, stealing Bitcoin.
- Blockchain integrity breach: Mass theft would crash prices and erode trust.
- Disrupted consensus: Quantum computing may destabilize Proof-of-Work mining.
Experts predict that this risk will materialize within 10 to 20 years. Project Eleven realized that without clear visibility, the community can’t prioritize the defenses needed to strengthen its cryptographic foundations.
The Creation of the RISQ List
Project 11 Bitcoin RISQ List is a transparent, data-driven assessment of the network’s quantum vulnerability. This tool meticulously identifies and categorizes Bitcoin addresses based on their cryptographic exposure. It clarifies which assets face immediate risk, such as exposed public keys, versus those protected by hash functions until spent.
This extensive blockchain analysis quantifies the quantum threat, transforming abstract fears into concrete data. The RISQ List serves three critical functions:
- It empowers Bitcoin holders to assess their personal risk and improve security practices.
- It creates urgency by demonstrating that a significant amount of value lacks adequate protection.
- It establishes a crucial benchmark for the entire community to measure progress toward quantum readiness.
Yellowpages: Project Eleven’s Quantum-Resistant Solution
In response to the RISQ List’s findings, Project Eleven developed Yellowpages, an innovative, open-source cryptographic registry. This platform is designed as a practical, post-quantum fallback for Bitcoin holders.
Yellowpages allows users to proactively establish quantum-resilient ownership without requiring immediate, contentious on-chain protocol changes. Users can generate quantum-resistant key pairs and create a secure cryptographic proof that links their existing Bitcoin addresses to these new quantum-safe addresses.
This proof is then securely timestamped and registered in a publicly verifiable registry. The solution provides a vital safety net, allowing users to prove ownership proactively. It ensures security even if a quantum computer breaks current ECC standards before Bitcoin implements native quantum resistance.
The Q-Day Prize: Benchmarking the Threat
To move beyond theoretical speculation, Project Eleven launched the Q-Day Prize. The competition offers 1 BTC to the first team that can demonstrate the ability to break elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) on a quantum computer.
The competition requires participants to submit verifiable quantum programs and system specs, emphasizing techniques scalable to full cryptographic keys. Structured around progressively larger ECC key sizes, the prize is a critical benchmark for measuring real-world quantum progress.
The initiative aims to provide transparency and quantify the true timeline to Q-Day. By incentivizing researchers to test current hardware realistically, the Q-Day Prize ensures the crypto community receives actionable, accurate intelligence. This approach replaces passive anticipation with concrete data, guiding the necessary transition to quantum-resistant security.
Why the RISQ List Matters Right Now
Some critics argue that quantum threats remain too distant to warrant immediate concern, suggesting resources would be better spent on present challenges. This perspective dangerously underestimates both the quantum timeline and the difficulty of coordinating cryptocurrency protocol changes.
Implementing quantum-resistant cryptography across Bitcoin’s decentralized network requires consensus-building and extensive testing. Phased rollouts and user migration are also necessary, processes that take years, not months. If the community waits until quantum computers pose imminent threats, panic-driven decisions could fragment the network or create new vulnerabilities.
The RISQ List matters now because preparation must begin long before a crisis strikes. Furthermore, institutional investors increasingly scrutinize long-term security risks before committing capital to cryptocurrency. Demonstrated quantum readiness could unlock significant institutional adoption, while continued vulnerability could trigger risk-off sentiment and capital flight.
The list also pressures wallet developers, exchanges, and infrastructure providers to prioritize quantum-resistant features in their roadmaps.
Industry Response and Future Implications
Project Eleven secured $6 million in seed funding co-led by Quantonation and Variant Fund, marking Quantonation’s first investment in the crypto sector. This investment signals growing recognition of quantum risks across both the cryptocurrency and quantum computing industries.
Several Bitcoin improvement proposals addressing quantum resistance are under development, though none have achieved consensus for implementation. The RISQ List provides urgency and data supporting these proposals, potentially accelerating their consideration and adoption.
Beyond Bitcoin, other cryptocurrencies face similar quantum vulnerabilities. Project Eleven’s methodologies and solutions could extend to Ethereum, other proof-of-work chains, and even proof-of-stake networks. The organization positions itself not as a Bitcoin-only initiative but as a broader quantum security infrastructure provider for digital assets.
As quantum computing continues advancing, the RISQ List will require regular updates reflecting new vulnerabilities, technological developments, and Bitcoin protocol changes. This ongoing monitoring ensures the community maintains current awareness of quantum exposure.
Frequently Asked Questions
How can I check if my Bitcoin address is on the RISQ List?
Visit Project Eleven’s website to access the RISQ List. The tool allows you to search specific addresses or learn about different address types’ vulnerability levels. Understanding your exposure helps determine whether you should use Yellowpages to create quantum-resistant proofs or migrate to safer address formats.
Does creating a Yellowpages proof require moving my Bitcoin or making on-chain transactions?
No, Yellowpages creates off-chain cryptographic proofs linking your existing Bitcoin addresses to quantum-resistant keys without requiring any blockchain transactions. This means no transaction fees, no on-chain footprint, and no need to move your assets. To protect against quantum attacks, the proofs are kept in a publicly verifiable registry.
When do experts estimate quantum computers will threaten Bitcoin security?
Estimates vary widely, typically ranging from five to twenty years. Some experts suggest cryptographically relevant quantum computers could emerge around 2035, while others warn that breakthroughs could accelerate this timeline. Project Eleven’s Q-Day Prize aims to provide concrete benchmarks about current quantum capabilities, helping refine these estimates and ensure adequate preparation time.
The RISQ List highlights the urgent need for quantum preparedness in the Bitcoin ecosystem. Project Eleven’s initiatives, including Yellowpages and the Q-Day Prize, provide practical tools and benchmarks to safeguard assets. Proactive action today ensures security, trust, and resilience as quantum computing advances toward real-world impact.
